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Eventually, Covid fades into the background as enough people have been exposed, perhaps multiple times. There are good new drugs to treat infections coming on-stream, too. Many of us will encounter Covid again in the wild during an Nth wave, but we may not be much affected after repeated vaccinations and low-level infection. It’s looking likely the pandemic endgame is that most people in most countries get vaccinated, but the virus never vanishes.
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Set against that is a rising count of vaccinations (that has rightly made people feel safer) and natural infection (that probably hasn’t, but has ultimately conferred the same antibodies so should). Persistent Covid has led to a pattern in most countries of waves of infection, some measure of lockdown and restriction, and then periods of rebounding economic activity. This all has consequences for our economies, and hence inflation. Worse, more than 100 people are still dying of coronavirus every day in the UK. But – perhaps because of the emergence of the delta variant – they have done less well curbing transmission. Vaccines have done a great job preventing death and reducing hospitalization. Since then though the vaccine picture has got murkier. Especially when their efficacy data was better than anyone expected. Nevertheless, that time looked truncated when the vaccines arrived in Autumn 2020. Moreover the experts were right – Covid would be with us for a time. It was clear I’d misread some of the early data. And if they did, there would be a big sudden hit to GDP – as well as some lasting economic damage (or ‘scarring’).Īs it became clear a second wave of Covid was coming in the UK by late summer 2020, I gave up my side hustle as a freelance epidemiologist. I wondered if Westerners would even submit to such mandates.
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But China had only needed to totally switch off one province, and I feared the consequences of shuttering countries. True, that had seemingly done the trick in China. Let’s think about why we have these rising prices today.īack at the beginning of Covid consciousness – late February to March 2020 – there was no consensus as to how nations should or would tackle the threat.Īs long-time readers may remember, I was wary of mandating blanket economic shutdowns. I’m not convinced the boss bankers should hurry, however. Should Central Banks be quicker to raise rates in response to rising prices? The US bond market has been mildly roiled recently by fast-shifting calculations concerning exactly that.
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That in a nutshell, is what they call spiraling inflation. Companies will increase prices where they can. The more we see rising prices, the more companies and consumers expect more of the same. However I’m coming around to the view that higher prices may persist.Īnd that’s mainly because they are already persisting! Some price rises may even reverse as deflationary forces prevail again. The best case – which I still haven’t totally given up on – is that inflation should ease as we get past the worst of Covid. Those disruptions are what’s causing rising prices. More generally, Covid and waves of economic shutdowns happened globally. Prices are already up in the UK and inflationary Brexit impacts – border friction and staffing shortages – are piling on top of the global trend. Europe and Asia might yet avoid surging prices, they suggest. They finger more generous fiscal stimulus in the US. Some holdouts believe this is an American issue. The US consumer price index just jumped 6.2% – the most since 1990 – and alternative measures that strip out everything that Americans actually want to buy show rising prices, too.
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